While the IndyCar.com is trying desperately to spin some tale about there being six drivers mathematically eligible to win the IndyCar series championship this year, the fact is this thing is over. This is not to say that there’s no reason to watch anymore, but the drama surrounding the championship is almost to the point of being unnecessary.
Consider the following: In addition to winning 5 of 13 races this year, Scott Dixon has finished on the podium 10 times. That’s a lot of bottles of champagne, and mind you those are those super crazy big “spray everyone silly” bottles he’s been handed. And while it doesn’t mean Dixon is already intoxicated beyond belief from his winning ways, it does mean that with only four races left it’s going to be nearly impossible for anyone to catch a guy who’s getting at least 35 points nearly every time he races.
How impossible? Well, according to Sports Club Stats there’s a 98.3% chance that Dixon wins the championship. Let’s put that another way: there’s a less than 1 in 50 chance that someone not named “Scott Dixon” wins the IndyCar series in 2008.
Still not sure about this? Fine, let’s take a look at Sports Club Stats results of 20,000,000 possible outcomes and translate them to reality for the men chasing Dixon.
Helio Castroneves (65 points back):
• Odds of Helio developing hemorrhoids: 1 in 28
• Odds of Helio winning the IndyCar series championship in 2008: 1 in 59
• Odds of Helio being on plane with a drunken pilot: 1 in 117
Dan Wheldon (115 points back):
• Odds of Dan getting injured using a chain saw: 1 in 4464
• Odds of Dan winning the IndyCar series championship in 2008: 1 in 7065
• Odds of Dan's wife having triplets: 1 in 8100
Tony Kanaan (118 points back):
• Odds of Tony falling out of a building: 1 in 6422
• Odds of Tony winning the IndyCar series championship in 2008: 1 in 9116
• Odds of Tony winning an Academy Award: 1 in 11,500
Sorry friends, but it looks like it’s all over but the cryin’.
(Thanks to IRL-O-Rama for the links)
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