Against all odds

Posted by Iannucci | 8/06/2008 | 5 comments »
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While the IndyCar.com is trying desperately to spin some tale about there being six drivers mathematically eligible to win the IndyCar series championship this year, the fact is this thing is over. This is not to say that there’s no reason to watch anymore, but the drama surrounding the championship is almost to the point of being unnecessary.

Consider the following: In addition to winning 5 of 13 races this year, Scott Dixon has finished on the podium 10 times. That’s a lot of bottles of champagne, and mind you those are those super crazy big “spray everyone silly” bottles he’s been handed. And while it doesn’t mean Dixon is already intoxicated beyond belief from his winning ways, it does mean that with only four races left it’s going to be nearly impossible for anyone to catch a guy who’s getting at least 35 points nearly every time he races.

How impossible? Well, according to Sports Club Stats there’s a 98.3% chance that Dixon wins the championship. Let’s put that another way: there’s a less than 1 in 50 chance that someone not named “Scott Dixon” wins the IndyCar series in 2008.

Still not sure about this? Fine, let’s take a look at Sports Club Stats results of 20,000,000 possible outcomes and translate them to reality for the men chasing Dixon.

Helio Castroneves (65 points back):
• Odds of Helio developing hemorrhoids: 1 in 28
• Odds of Helio winning the IndyCar series championship in 2008: 1 in 59
• Odds of Helio being on plane with a drunken pilot: 1 in 117

Dan Wheldon (115 points back):
• Odds of Dan getting injured using a chain saw: 1 in 4464
• Odds of Dan winning the IndyCar series championship in 2008: 1 in 7065
• Odds of Dan's wife having triplets: 1 in 8100

Tony Kanaan (118 points back):
• Odds of Tony falling out of a building: 1 in 6422
• Odds of Tony winning the IndyCar series championship in 2008: 1 in 9116
• Odds of Tony winning an Academy Award: 1 in 11,500

Sorry friends, but it looks like it’s all over but the cryin’.

(Thanks to IRL-O-Rama for the links)

5 comments

  1. Tabernerus // August 06, 2008 8:15 PM  

    But here's the thing. You'd have to admit that Helio is one of the handful of drivers with a real chance to win at Kentucky. So what if Dixon gets collected by a dumb wreck early, and finishes 23rd? Suddenly, it's way more wide open. And Marco IS racing at Kentucky, so a weird wreck is always a real possibility. :-)

  2. Zappatista // August 07, 2008 4:54 AM  

    Well, let us all watch it play out on VERSUS!!!

  3. Dale Nixon // August 07, 2008 5:28 AM  

    What about the race to the chase to the race to the chase for the IRL championship?

    And what exactly is the championship trophy, a bronzed stalk of corn?

  4. mmack // August 07, 2008 6:08 AM  

    Jeff,

    Expanding on what tabernerus said, it is likely Scott Dixon will win the IRL championship, but it is not 100% certain he will. To wit:

    - Marco Andretti could decide to go for that 2nd career ICS win, and the driver to pass for the win in the closing laps is Scott Dixon. A Pressdogian "festival of carbon fiber" occurs and third place wins. No points awarded and Helio makes up some ground.

    - Scott must lap Danica!, and Danica! says to herself "MENACE?!? I'LL SHOW YOU MENACE!!!!!!!!!" One pit stop later to replace a missing front wing, Scott finishes 12th one lap down and Choppers and Helio! make up big ground.

    - E.J. Viso decides he has to get that position from Scott, and it looks like there's room to make the move. Somehow only E.J. survives the passing attempt.

    - Enrique Bernoldi breaks into a spin just as Scott is going to lap him.

    So while I'm pretty sure it's all over but for the wreath and loving cup ceremony, like Yogi Berra said: "It ain't over, till it's over."

    Of course, he also said "You can observe a lot just by watching" too. :^)

  5. the american mutt // August 07, 2008 11:55 AM  

    There's also the very real possibilty (though I NEVER want to see it) that he could get hurt in a bad wreck, and not finish the season. Let me restate that, though I don't want to see him get the championship, I would HATE to see it happen that way, but lets face it--auto racing is dangerous.