Cavin picks his Fave 5

When the intrepid Curt Cavin speaks, people listen, and more than a few ears perked up in response to Cavin's analysis of the field for the 93rd running of the Indianapolis 500.

Here is what Cavin said last Thursday during the Trackside show.

"Well, the reality is there's about five guys. Two at Ganassi, so you've got...you got about five favorites. Let's just list them. Dario and Dixon. You've got Kanaan, Castroneves, and Briscoe. Honestly, who could win...

Wheldon, you would say 'Yeah, I think he could win the race', but you can't put him above those five. If you were just based on raw speed and the race going according to plan, which it never does.

But, normally you don't have five guys at that tip-top level. You've got five of them now that..he's got to flat out beat, because, they're not all five gonna fall out. So there's five, and then kind of a second tier in my opinion is Wheldon, and after that he may be the only one in that..."

Although I don't agree entirely with Cavin, I didn't think this was any earth-shattering news. It's a logical opinion because these are going to be the favorites for pretty much every race this year. However, our good buddy pressdog called this a "Month of May Buzz Kill". And while one man's opinion of another man's opinion doesn't necessarily demand a response from me, I've got to try to refute this doom and gloom.

As you may or may not have heard, this year my family will be staying back in Arizona for The 500, and as a consequence I have taken the daring step of sharing lodging for the race weekend with the p-dog. That's right - it will be the Bargain Basement Blogger Budget Special, and if you really want to know I might be able to find out the eagerly anticipated Beer of the Race in advance.

But that's all for later, because right now I'm concerned with picking up the spirits (which will later involve picking up the tab for spirits) of my soon-to-be roomie. In recent years I've attended the race with my kids, who could care less about the generally accepted prospects for their favorite drivers because they just love the speedway, the crowd, the race, and the opportunity to cheer up close and in person. And they LOVE track fries.

So yes, I'm expecting equal enthusiasm from pressdog. My goal, difficult as it may be, is to get him just as fired up for the race as P1 and P2 would be, but I know I can't do this by arguing. So instead I'm going to try a different approach by showing that Cavin's "buzz kill" prediction may not be the most accurate. Curt's certainly entitled to his well-thought opinion, but I'm not obligated to buy that this race comes down to just these five.

It's pop quiz time, friends. Get your inner Donald Davidson ready.

Question 1 What driver has led the most laps at Indianapolis over the last three years?

Question 2 Which drivers have led laps in each of the last three 500s?

Question 3 Who has led more laps at Indianapolis in the last three years: Ryan Briscoe, Jacques Lazier, Mario Moraes, or Michael Andretti?

Go ahead. Take your time. Google the answer if you must. It's all about learning here, and it doesn't matter how you do it.

...Done yet? No? Still on hold for "Talk of Gasoline Alley"? I see.

...Alright people, I don't have all day. Here are the answers.


Answer 1 Dan Wheldon, who has led 178 combined laps in the last three years. Bear in mind that doesn't even count 2005 when he WON the race, which I realize might come as a shock to Danica Patrick fans who mistakenly believe she was victorious that year. Also, well behind Dan on that list of lap leaders is Scott Dixon with 132 and Tony Kanaan with 107.

It's true Wheldon no longer drives for one of the Big Three, but last year Vitor Meira and Panther Racing finished second with a car that was obviously equal to winner Scott Dixon's. While Panther hasn't won a race sine Tomas Scheckter was their driver, this is Wheldon and this is Indy and for this race only Dan's chances are literally as good as any other driver's.

Answer 2 Scott Dixon, Tony Kanaan, and Marco Andretti.

It's possible Marco Andretti isn't considered in that top tier because he's only won one race in 51 IndyCar starts. It's more likely, however, that it's because his surname is 'Andretti'. Everyone knows about the family's hard luck at Indy (I think the Andretti family is now 0-for-the-last-73 entries collectively), but there are other very good drivers - some included in Cavin's list - who also are winless at The 500.

Marco has led 454 laps in his career, which is roughly NINE for every race he's entered. The law of averages says at some point those laps led will come at the end of a race, and given that he's been at or near the front of the field near the end of all three of his prior Indy 500s, he seems an obvious pick for that top tier. You just have to look past the name.

Answer 3 Michael Andretti (4), Mario Moraes (3), Jacques Lazier (2), Ryan Briscoe (0).

This is a bit of a loaded question because Briscoe didn't race in '06 or '07 (EDIT: Good catch, Kohl. Forgot about the Luczo-Dragon run for Briscoe in '07.), though on the other hand none of these guys has actually driven in all three of the last three 500s. However, I bring this up to show that it doesn't make much sense to me to count the Briscoe Inferno in the top tier and not his teammate Will Power. Perhaps there's a belief that Briscoe is superior because he has more experience racing on ovals larger than mile, but even with all of that experience he has as many wins on them as Power. Zero.

I can only presume Will Power is still viewed by many as the dreaded "road course specialist", but Roger Penske must have seen something in the guy to hire him as his 2009 contingency driver. Like maybe that in 2008 Power finished 1st or 2nd among "transition" drivers at Milwaukee, Texas, Iowa, Nashville, Chicagoland and most importantly Indianapolis. Or maybe his gradual improvement in those races, which chronologically were: Indy 13th, Milwaukee 14th, Texas 13th, Iowa 9th, Nashville 11th, Chicagoland 5th. If he's good enough for The Captain, then he's good enough to consider him in the top tier.

Not that I've bothered to select a top tier, mind you. I'm not in the prognostication business, other than to predict that since I'll be attending the race will probably be affected by rain. It seems your humble host always brings the precipitation, and as you know crazy results can happen at the Greatest Spectacle in Raining. In fact...